Newspapers=King Makers?

Flipping through the Globe and Mail's website today, I came across the newspaper's official mayoral endorsement. The Globe has decided to endorse George Smitherman as Toronto's mayor. Yet before it got to the endorsement, it painted a gloom and doom situation for the city's finances and dealings with its employee unions. The editorial paints a bleak picture of the candidacy of both Smitherman and his opponent, Rob Ford. In the end, the Globe decided that Smitherman was the best candidate for the job, despite his flaws.

This editorial got me thinking. How important is a newspaper giving its endorsement to a political candidate? Will this sway large amounts of voters in their decision making process?

In the current Winnipeg mayoral campaign, the Winnipeg Free Press has yet to back anyone. To be honest, I can't remember if it gave an endorsement in the last civic election. The Sun, having an editorial slant to the right of centre, doesn't even have to give an endorsement. It's pretty obvious that Sam Katz is their candidate. I'm not sure if an endorsement by the Free Press would make any difference. Every organization out there has seemed to endorse a candidate. Would a newspaper's endorsement be anymore influential?

According to a a professor at Brown University, these endorsements do hold sway over the public to some extent. Mainly, if a newspaper goes against its traditional editorial ideology and selects a politician from the other side of the spectrum, that endorsement will be more effective. The example given was that the Chicago Tribune's endorsement of Barack Obama, the first Democrat it had endorsed in its 161 year history, was much more effective than the traditionally left leaning New York Time's endorsement of Obama.

Surveys conducted during the 2004 American presidential election found that in so-called "toss up states" the candidate with the most newspaper endorsements won that state 14 out of 15 times. It seems there might be some truth to the idea that newspapers can influence voters with their endorsements.

I'm going to keep my eyes out next week to see if the Free Press makes an endorsement and if they do which candidate they're endorsing.